Mongolia is an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative “China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor”and a region that has been severely affected by global climate change. Changes in grassland production have had a profound impact on the sustainable development of the region. Our study explored an optimal model for estimating grassland production in Mongolia and discovered its temporal and spatial distributions. Three estimation models were established using a statistical analysis method based on EVI, MSAVI, NDVI, and PsnNet from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing data and measured data. A model evaluation and accuracy comparison showed that an exponential model based on MSAVI was the best simulation (model accuracy 78%). This was selected to estimate the grassland production in central and eastern Mongolia from 2006 to 2015. The results show that the grassland production in the study area had a significantly fluctuating trend for the decade study; a slight overall increasing trend was observed. For the first five years, the grassland production decreased slowly, whereas in the latter five years, significant fluctuations were observed. The grassland production (per unit yield) gradually increased from the southwest to northeast. In most provinces of the study area, the production was above 1000 kg ha-1, with the largest production in Hentiy, at 3944.35 kg ha-1. The grassland production (total yield) varied greatly among the provinces, with Kent showing the highest production, 2341.76×104 t. Results also indicate that the trend in grassland production along the China-Mongolia railway was generally consistent with that of the six provinces studied.

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