Landslide is a common geological disaster that poses a major threat
to people’s production, life and social activities, and is seriously
destructive to the surrounding environment. At present, with the
acceleration of human industrialization and the intensification of
engineering activities, more and more landslides caused by human
engineering activities appear, among which the landslide caused by
mining is one of them. Open-pit mining engineering changes the
balance state of the original ground stress. With the excavation
of the open pit, the deformation of the slope rock mass also occurs,
and most of the open pit coal mines have appeared on landslides.
In view of the prevention and control of landslide disasters in
open-pit mines, it is particularly important to scientifically
and reasonably predict the harm degree of mine landslides to
personnel and economic property, effectively reduce the losses
caused by mine landslides, ensure the safe and economic operation
of mines, and strengthen the research work of mine landslide
disaster risk evaluation.
It is of great practical significance to carry out quantitative
risk assessment of landslide disaster to protect people’s lives
and property safety and maintain the sustainable development of
social economy. The delineation of landslide disaster range is
the key link of landslide risk evaluation in open-pit mine.
This study took the open-pit coal mine coal mine in Block I of
Thar coal field in Pakistan as the research background, and
constructed a framework for landslide risk evaluation in open-pit
mines. Based on the numerical simulation method of large deformation
of landslide, the disaster range of landslide in open-pit mine
was delineated. The stability of stope slope was analyzed based
on rigid body limit equilibrium method. The probability of landslide
instability was calculated based on Monte Carlo method. And the
comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model was established to calculate
the total risk value of landslide.
The results showed that: through numerical simulation and empirical
formula calculation, the landslide disaster range was accurately
delineated, and the comprehensive vulnerability of the disaster
bearing body was determined to be medium vulnerability; the annual
probability of landslide instability under natural conditions was
0.003, which belongs to moderate risk. The annual probability of
landslide instability under rainstorm conditions was 0.024, which
was highly dangerous; the annual probability of landslide instability
under seismic conditions was 0.018, which was highly dangerous.
Under natural conditions, the total risk value of landslide was
114,686.4 rmb, and the annual mortality rate of population was
0.0255 people/year. The total risk value of landslide under rainstorm
condition was 11,707,570 rmb, and the annual mortality rate of
population was 0.18375 people/year. The total risk value of landslide
under earthquake condition was 43,007,400 rmb, and the annual
mortality rate of population was 0.135 person/year, which was an
The economic loss was a small geological disaster risk under natural
conditions, and it was a medium-sized geological disaster risk under
both rainstorm and earthquake conditions. Therefore, landslide prevention
and control and management measures such as slope deformation monitoring
were proposed to ensure the safety of personnel and property in open-pit mines.
This study evaluated the risk level of economic loss and personnel loss
of landslide bearing body. The personnel loss was characterized by annual
mortality rate, and its risk level exceeded the acceptable risk level.
The economic loss was evaluated by the risk level, and the analysis
showed that it belonged to the medium-sized geological disaster risk
under the conditions of rainstorm and earthquake. Therefore, it was
recommended that the open-pit mine in Thar Coalfield, Pakistan needed
to take certain landslide prevention and control measures.
Provided by the IKCEST Disaster Risk Reduction Knowledge Service System