The Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO), issued operationally from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), serves the Weather and Water Enterprise and decision makers with probabilistic guidance and messaging context out to three days for excessive rainfall leading to impacts, including flash flooding. Eighty-three percent of all flood-related damages and 39 percent of all flood-related fatalities reported in NWS Storm Data from 2010–2020 occurred in or near an ERO High Risk. Given that a High Risk is issued on only four percent of days, the presence of such risk can serve as an important step in raising situational awareness of a greater likelihood of a damaging and deadly flash flood day.
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