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Future Price Forecasting in the Wake of Large-Scale Disasters: The Case of Puerto Rico After Hurricane María

Future Price Forecasting in the Wake of Large-Scale Disasters: The Case of Puerto Rico After Hurricane María

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Fixed price cost estimates for large-scale disaster recovery projects in relatively isolated areas are likely to require unique approaches to future price forecasting.An occupational analysis and calibrated computable general equilibrium model for the governor of Puerto Rico's 2018 hurricane recovery plan suggested that to meet ambitious reconstruction schedules approximately 75 percent of the necessary labor for efforts will come from sources outside the region labor costs in Puerto Rico are likely to be considerably higher because of the wage disparity between Puerto Rico and the continental United States material prices are not likely to increase significantly given Puerto Rico's small, open economy with supply chain connections to and beyond the continental United States equipment costs will likely rise on the order of 10 percent in the first few years of recovery.

Access Link: https://ikcest-drr.osgeo.cn/static/upload/cb/cba5f864-b414-11ee-b530-00163e059c63.pdf

Published by
RAND Corporation (United States)
Theme
Future price,after disasters
Completion date
2022.06
Submission date
2022.06
Total pages
5
Starting page number
1
Ending page number
5
Report type
Academic report
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