Journal
Proceedings on International Conference on Disaster Risk Management
Paper Keyword
Climate Variability,DHAKA City
Abstract
Under the present global warming scenario, area specific analysis of climate variability and extremes are in high demand especially for an ever-growing urban place like Dhaka city, having huge exposure of people and property. A successful urban planning of the city prerequisites a profound study about its vulnerabilities where climatic extremes play a significant role. Trend and anomaly analysis of climate variability and extremes of Dhaka city during 1981-2017 disclosed that the annual rainfall is decreasing at a rate of -9.87mm (-11.71 Sen’s slope) per year while both maximum and minimum annual temperature are increasing about 0.017ºC and 0.028ºC per year respectively, which will be 30.6°C and 25.9°C by 2075 according to projection. Recent decades showed higher standard deviations, shifting of distribution (rainfall) and mean (temperature) and also sudden increases of both parameters. Thus the city climate is becoming extreme and threatened by more frequent heat waves while rainfall is becoming extreme in July and August making the southern part of Dhaka city vulnerable to flooding situations. Due to the negative correlation between parameters, rainfall extremes are less likely to take places in the years of temperature extremes. In spite of some contradictory findings with scientific analysis; survey result of perception study reveals that the climate variability and extremes are well perceived by the city people who also wisely depicted the factors of changes, affected sectors, and requirements for better preparedness as well as disaster management.
