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Results:

1.Spatial Temporal Analysis

1.1.Time Series Analysis

After the COVID-19 outbreak, the number of Sina Weibo posts increased rapidly in a short period of time. It started to increase significantly from January 20, 2020 reaching a peak on January 21, then it started a downtrend with fluctuation until January 29. It rose quickly from January 31 reaching the highest peak on February 7 then started a downtrend with fluctuation. After mid-May, it dropped to a stable level and remained so until December with small fluctuations in different months but no abnormal high values. Typical events, such as the National Commendation Conference for Fighting COVID-19 on September 8, had certain impact and caused fluctuations on the number of public opinions, but the stability of the trend was not affected.

Figure 1. Time Series Changes of Number of Posts on COVID-19 from Sina Weibo in China (Jan 9 – Dec 9, 2020)

1.2.Spatial analysis

Sina Weibo posts related to COVID-19 pandemic had concentrations in Central and Eastern China including 12 provinces(cities): Guangdong, Beijing, Hubei, Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hebei, Shaanxi, Shanxi. Areas with more than 20,000 posts were Guangdong, Beijing, Hubei, Henan and Shandong. Guangdong had the highest number of posts at 24,539. Beijing ranked in second with 24.005 posts.

Figure 2. Spatial Changes of Number of Posts on COVID-19 from Sina Weibo in China (Jan 9 – Dec 9, 2020)

2.Topic Analysis

2.1.Topic Result Statistics

Among the first level topics, Views and Sentiments, Overseas Pandemics and Preventive and Control Measures ranked as top 3, accounted for 22.05%, 15.55% and 14.56% of the total posts, respectively. These 3 topics combined accounted for more than 50% of the total. They were followed by Personal Prevention and Protection, Vaccine Research and Development, Economic Impact and Medical Treatment which accounted for 10.93%, 10.92%, 10.78% and 10.54% of the total, respectively. These 4 topics have about equal percentages and a combined total of more than 40%. This revealed the main focus of social media on the categories of public sentiments, medical protection and treatment, economic impact and global issues.

Figure 3. Number of First Level Topics on COVID-19 from Sina Weibo Posts in China (Jan 9 – Dec 9, 2020)

Among the second level topics, Overseas Pandemic Updates had the largest number, accounted for 21.43% of the total. It was followed by Economic Recovery, Tributes and Commendations, Case Investigation, Blessings and Wishes, Official Updates and Concerns About Global Pandemic with a combined total of 50.23%. Then followed by Global Fight Against Pandemic, Call for Other Countries to Prevent COVID-19, Market Impact, Back to Work and Back to School and Imported Case Prevention and Control with a combined total of 20.73%. Other second level topics such as Donation Information, Pandemic Updates, Employment Issues, Stock Market Volatility, Legal Restrictions, Medical Research and Remove International Flight Bans all had very small percentages.

Figure 4. Number of Second Level Topics on COVID-19 from Sina Weibo Posts in China (Jan 9 – Dec 9, 2020)

2.2.Time Series Analysis of Topics

I.Time Series Analysis of First Level Topics

There was a total of 9 first level topics. Preventive and Control Measures started to rise from mid-January reaching a peak in early February, then started a downtrend with fluctuation. Views and Sentiments started to rise from mid-January reaching a peak on Jan 21, then started a downward with fluctuation. There was a small peak in late March then it became stable. Overseas Pandemic and Economic Impact rose slowly from late January reaching a peak in early February, then started an uptrend with fluctuation reaching a peak in mid-March, then started a downtrend with fluctuation and stabilized after May.Donation Information started to rise from early January reaching a peak in early February then followed with some drop, then a peak reached in mid-March and a trough reached in late March followed with some recovery and stabilized in May.Medical Treatment started an uptrend with fluctuation from mid-January. It rose suddenly in early February and became stable at a high level, then started a downtrend with fluctuation and stabilized in early April. Vaccine Development rose from mid-January then dropped. A peak reached in early February then it started a downtrend with fluctuation and stabilized in early April. Personal Prevention and Protection rose from late January then followed with a downtrend with fluctuation. It rose again in mid-February then dropped and stabilized. Pandemic Updates started an uptrend with fluctuation from early February reaching a peak in late February then dropped. Then it started an uptrend with fluctuation reaching a peak in mid-March then started a downtrend with fluctuation. Peaks reached in early August and mid-November.

Figure 5. Time Series Analysis of First Level Topics on COVID-19 from Sina Weibo Posts in China (Jan 9 – Dec 9, 2020)

II.Time Series Analysis of Second Level Topics

Legal Restrictions, Back to Work and Back to School, Official Updates and Case Investigation all started an irregular uptrend with fluctuation from late January followed with a downtrend with fluctuation. Official Updates and Case Investigation each reached a small peak between early to mid-June. Case Investigation showed a strong irregular fluctuation after September. Medical Research, Call for Other Countries to Prevent COVID-19, Global Fight Against Pandemic, Blessings and Wishes all reached the highest peak around Jan 20, then started a downtrend with fluctuation until Jan 29, then started fluctuate irregularly with an overall decline. Among which, Global Fight Against Pandemic had a slower speed of decline. Concerns About Global Pandemic and Blessings and Wishes had almost the same curve. Tributes and Commendations reached a small peak in the early days of pandemic, and reached a high peak on Apr 3 with the holding of national mourning event, then reached another small peak on Sept 8 with the holding of National Award Ceremony on Fight against COVID-19 in Beijing. Imported Case Prevention and Control and Overseas Pandemic Updates both had similar curves, an uptrend with fluctuation before March followed with a downtrend with fluctuation. Economic Recovery also had a similar curve with only some slight differences. Economic Recovery reached a peak in mid-February. Stock Market Volatility, Market Impact and Employment Issues all had similar curves with the highest peak around Mar 15. Remove International Flight Bans only had the highest peak around June 20, number of topics were much less than the others, the overall curve fluctuated irregularly.

Figure 6. Time Series Analysis of Second Level Topics on COVID-19 from Sina Weibo Posts in China (Jan 9 – Dec 9, 2020)

2.3.Spatial Analysis of Topics

(1)Category of Information Updates

Official Updates had highest values in Beijing followed by Wuhan, Xi’an and Chengdu, then followed with higher values distributed around the Hubei-Henan-Anhui provincial borders and the Henan-Shandong-Hebei provincial borders. Pandemic Updates was concentrated in Wuhan in early 2020 due to the local pandemic outbreak, and the distribution had a single core in Wuhan with the highest value.

(2)Category of Public Sentiments

Spatial distribution of Views and Sentiments had high correlation to the pandemic development and the geographic distribution of the urbanized Chinese population. It had highest values city clusters including Beijing and surrounding areas, Wuhan, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Chengdu-Chongqing region. The distribution had these multiple cores and continuous map coverages around provincial capital cities, and much less in other areas. Legal Restrictions had highest values in areas connecting Beijing and Wuhan which are the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei provincial borders and the Henan-Shandong provincial borders. Hot cities include Beijing, Langfang, Tianjin, Heze, Puyang, Xinxiang, Kaifeng and Shangqiu, then followed with higher values in Chengdu, Xi’an and Wuhan. Tributes and Commendations had highest values in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (centred at Beijing) followed with higher values in Wuhan, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Chengdu and Xi’an. Donation Information were distributed across Central and West China and had isolated highest values in Beijing. Blessings and Wishes had highest values in Wuhan and Beijing followed with higher values in Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Chengdu-Chongqing region.

(3)Category of Medical Prevention and Treatment

Personal Prevention and Protection had multiple concentrations in the distribution including Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (centred at Beijing) region, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing region, followed with other provincial capital including Guangzhou, Xi’an, Jinan. Vaccine Research and Development were highly concentrated in Beijing and surrounding areas followed with Guangzhou and Shenzhen within Pearl River Delta and Shanghai within Yangtze River Delta, then followed with Wuhan, Chengdu and some provincial capital cities in Central and Eastern China. Medical Research had isolated highest values mainly in cities including Beijing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Suzhou, Jiaxing, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Xi’an. It had continuous map coverage in Central and Eastern China. Medical Treatment was concentrated in Wuhan followed by Beijing. It had smaller values in other areas but still showed concentrations in city clusters including Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Chengdu-Chongqing region. Preventive and Control Measures had highest values in Beijing and surrounding areas followed by Wuhan, Chengdu, Henan-Anhui-Shandong-Hebei provincial borders and Xi’an. It was less in traditional city clusters including Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta.

(4)Category of Economic Impact

Economic Impact had highest values in 4 city clusters and Wuhan, especially in Beijing and Pearl River Delta. Back to Work and Back to School was distributed throughout the country with highest values in Beijing and Chengdu. It had continuous map coverage in Central and Eastern China. Stock Market Volatility had highest values in city clusters including Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (centred at Beijing) region, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, especially in Yangtze River Delta and coastal areas, then followed by higher values in Wuhan and Chengdu. Remove International Flight Bans had highest values concentrated in Beijing followed by Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. It had a scattered distribution in Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Xi’an and Jinan. Economic Recovery had isolated highest values mainly in cities including Beijing, Wuhan, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Xi’an and Zhengzhou. Market Impact had highest values in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and Pearl River Delta showing a distribution with 2 cores, followed with higher values in Wuhan, Shanghai, Suzhou, Jiaxing, Chengdu and Zhengzhou. Employment Issues had highest values in Beijing, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta.

(5)Category of Global Issues

Call for Other Countries to Prevent COVID-19, Global Fight Against Pandemic and Concerns About Global Pandemic all had similar distributions. They had highest values in areas including Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Wuhan which were areas with high international inflow of people or areas with past severe pandemic outbreaks. These 4 cores in the distribution were followed by higher values in Chengdu, Zhengzhou and Jinan. Imported Case Prevention and Control and Overseas Pandemic Updates had highest values in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (centred at Beijing) region as a single core distribution. It was followed with higher values in Chengdu, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, Shanghai, Suzhou and Jiaxing.

Figure 7. Spatial Distribution of Topics on COVID-19 from Sina Weibo Posts in China (Jan 9 – Dec 9, 2020)